En mayo todo indica que la inflación volvería a bajar, probablemente a un dígito, pero ¿seguirá bajando? ¿ hay que festejarlo?. En esta línea y para saber su opinión en Agenda Pyme radio entrevistamos a Juan Manuel Telechea, economista y director del Instituto de Trabajo y Economía Germán Abdala.
Telechea, autor del libro ‘Inflación ¿por qué Argentina no se la puede sacar de encima?’, señaló: “La velocidad en la que está bajando la inflación fue mayor a lo que la gran mayoría de las consultoras y economistas esperábamos” y sostuvo: “Cuando se viene de niveles de inflación muy elevados, como los que teníamos, cuesta que baje tan rápido”
“Yo creo que el gobierno está siendo exitoso», agregó el economista y sentenció en la misma línea: «El desafío es que este proceso se mantenga en el tiempo”.
“Cuando se mira para atrás, vemos que cuando la inflación es muy elevada, arranca un proceso vertiginoso de reducción, pero después cuesta llevarla a niveles normales”, siguió el director del Instituto de Trabajo y Economía.
“Muy probablemente, la inflación de abril esté por debajo de los dos dígitos, un 8% o 9%, pero aún así sigue siendo elevada”, indicó.«Al principio baja bastante, luego va a costar un poco más bajar la inflación, fundamentalmente que sea difícil bajar por debajo del 5% o el 6%”.
El economista también destacó que “hay una recesión muy grande, que hace que las empresas tengan mucho stock de los productos sin vender y eso las lleva a no subir tanto los precios”, agregó.
Y advirtió que «el dólar aumenta por debajo de la inflación y se está abaratando.Es un problema porque incentiva las importaciones o la compra de dólares y genera que el Banco Central empiece a quedar sin reservas. El desafío del gobierno es que esto no termine en una nueva devaluación”, dijo Telechea
Y explicó: “En Argentina el principal termómetro de la inflación es el dólar. como el dólar está estable, la inflación está estable. La reducción del déficit fiscal ayuda, pero ayuda para las expectativas”.
Finalmente el economista sostuvo: «No me gusta echarle culpa a las empresas. La lógica empresarial es en todo el mundo, ganar la mayor cantidad de plata y expandirse. Creo que el problema no es la empresa, sino el contexto macroeconómico”.
“Si creo que las empresa aumentaron los precios en exceso, tratando de cubrirse frente a un futuro incierto”, cerró.
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